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绿色基础设施的关键受益人Covid-19经济刺激

Fitch Solutions /基础设施与项目融资/全球/ Fri 12 Jun, 2020

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主要观点:

  • 我们预计,绿化等基础设施发挥政府在中期部署的经济刺激突出的作用,尽管这种投资将主要限于市场已经支持这些努力,包括欧盟和英国的。
  • 绿色基础设施建设的实质性支持,将继续从当前美国政府的政策基本上不存在,但在国家一级的努力将为投资者,如在可再生能源领域的一些支持。
  • A broad contrast will prevail between developed and less-developed markets with regards to green infrastructure, with the economic stimulus in the latter unlikely to materially boost the near-term prospects of these areas of investment.
  • 尽管这样,我们强调在拉丁美洲的主要市场,将继续他们现有的努力,以加强在长期的可再生能源的能力,虽然我们并不预期被提供在这些市场的可再生能源新鲜的刺激。
  • Infrastructure investment in Asia, and to a growing degree in Africa, will be characterised by China's infrastructure developments under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with scope for green investment under the BRI set to remain limited.

Investment in green infrastructure will be a key feature of economic stimulus deployed by governments across developed markets in response to Covid-19, with markets already supportive of such measures set to double-down in their support for green investments.随着政府的显著数量已经已经承诺到2050年实现净零碳排放,其余签署2015年的巴黎协定甚至更多,政府将积极为他们的短期经济刺激的工作朝着这个长期志向;最终加速他们对低碳化路径。事实上,一些市场已开始广泛的功能野心加剧绿色投资,我们预计这些公告通过的2020年下半年我们不小心,但是,Covid-19对经济的影响将不会提供转换日益频繁脱碳政策是持怀疑态度的政府追求这些目标。由于许多这样的市场不发达,不熟悉这方面的经济政策的形成和实施的可能性,他们的政府,而不是齐齐完善,往往碳密集型经济措施,仍然极有可能。

欧洲an Union To Maintain Its Lead On Policy-Driven Sustainability

The European Union (EU), already a prominent advocate for wholesale investment in green infrastructure via its European Green Deal, has intensified its efforts to ensure these investment themes remain central to the bloc’s economic recovery, following the exhaustion of more immediate policy measures.Whilst the impetus for this acceleration was unforeseen, we highlight that our基础设施重点主题预计2020年我们注意到,欧盟期待进一步巩固了其作为在绿色基础设施投资政策,努力推动领先地区的地位。继Covid - 19日,欧盟在这一地区仍然处于领先地位的开始,由集团进一步巩固其在此类政策最近推出的政策。

In the European Commission’s (EC) unveiling of its ‘Next Generation EU’ fund, an unprecedented EUR750bn Recovery Fund alongside its EUR1.1tn 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), the EC made several acknowledgements and pledges for the leading role of green investments in the fund. Specifically, its proposals include that 25% of the MFF’s spending must be climate-related and supportive of the EU’s broader decarbonisation, whilst the欧洲an Green Deal’s principles for investmentin building renovation, renewable energy and low-emission transport provide the framework to channel the recovery fund’s investments. The EU has also moved to bolster its Just Transition Fund; a component of its European Green Deal that seeks to mitigate the disruption to regions facing the greatest challenges to in the bloc’s route towards carbon neutrality, by providing an additional EUR32.5bn of funding to the Fund’s existing EUR7.5bn. Whilst the ultimate size and scale of the fund is subject to the agreement of member states,我们的国家风险团队将其最终传递积极,given existing momentum across the bloc for the measures that will see the major pillars of the fund remain intact.

Italy To Be Biggest Gross Beneficiary From Overall EU Recovery Funding

选择国家 - 提议所分配补助从欧盟恢复基金,EURbn

来源:欧盟委员会,惠誉解必威官网在线客服决方案

Diverse UK Infrastructure Market Offering Scope For Green Investment

英国与此同时,犯在2019年6月到2050年减少碳排放净零,预计也将追求广泛的经济刺激政策,将针对绿色投资。We have previously highlightedthe growing and varied opportunities for the UK infrastructure market, particularly following the UK’s 2019 General Election, with the short-term policy pressures of Covid-19 unlikely to deter the government long-term ambitions to realise a material uptick in infrastructure investment. In short, the government is set to combine the triad of the pandemic, the UK’s departure from the EU, and the 2050 net-zero target, to form the basis for a ramp-up in public investment and a more active role for the government in the market.

2020年3月英国预算已经提供ed detail on the scale of the government's intended provisions for infrastructure, with around GBP640bn of gross capital investment set to be provided across transport, energy, and social infrastructure. We anticipate details of the UK’s broad economic stimulus to be unveiled by the Chancellor imminently, and will likely flesh out existing commitments covering transport and energy infrastructure. We highlight offshore wind,electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure,and investments regarding the energy efficiency of buildings as notable areas that the government will seek to raise investment, alongside more general road and rail infrastructure modernisation. These will also extend to provisions for the labour market, amid growing concerns that the permanent economic shifts brought about by the virus will require the re-skilling of workers away from unviable sectors towards other, potentially green-focused, occupations. Indeed, we expect such labour market provisions to gain greater traction amongst policymakers globally, as these permanent shifts become more apparent.

Rapid Rise Ahead For EV Uptake To Necessitate Greater Infrastructure Investment

英国 - 电动车销售

F =誉必威官网在线客服解预测。来源:SMMT,惠誉解决方案必威官网在线客服

Green Investment In US Suffering Amid Reticence At The Federal Level

我们不期望本届美国政府实施支持的绿色基础设施的发展,任何实质性的措施,只有未来的民主党政府可能会制定这样的政策。The Democratic Party presidential primaries, prior to the onset of Covid-19, featured prominent discussion of a potential Green New Deal for the United States, including greater investment in public transport and EV infrastructure, widespread deployment of renewable energy assets, and initiatives to retrain workers for jobs in low-emission industries. Calls for such a policy package have intensified in recent months as the economic impact of the pandemic has become more apparent, with the economic situation becoming increasingly comparable to the circumstances during which the Roosevelt administration enacted the New Deal; following the onset of the Great Depression. These calls have not, however, gained traction within the Trump administration or amongst Republican policymakers, therefore we view the prospects for such a policy package being enacted, at least before November’s Presidential election, as non-existent. Indeed, the signing of an Executive Order in early-June, giving federal agencies emergency powers to override environmental requirements on energy infrastructure projects, demonstrates that carbon-intensive infrastructure investment will be the focus of economic stimulus.

Though policymakers at the federal-level will remain unmoved on the potential for green infrastructure investments, efforts at the state-level will offer some support for investors in the sector. New York State has seen its representatives discuss the prioritising of public transport expansion and greater investment in renewable energy, whilst existing state-level targets for renewable energy consumption will incentivise economic stimulus in this area. California, amongst other states, maintains a near-term target for 50% of its electricity to be generated by renewable energy by 2025, with this rising to 100% by 2045, therefore the existence of these targets will likely spur public investment in these areas, to a degree.

全球- Top 10 Paris Agreement Signatories By % Share Of Global CO2 Emissions
Country 全球二氧化碳排放量,2017年的%股份
中国 29.8%
United States 16.0%
India 7.5%
俄国 5.1%
日本 3.7%
Germany 2.4%
沙特阿拉伯 1.9%
韩国 1.9%
Canada 1.7%
Mexico 1.5%
注:美国已经通知它打算从协议退出联合国,2020年十一月4的有效来源:联合国,我们的世界数据

Developing Markets Offering Limited Opportunities For Fresh Green Stimulus

一个广泛的对比度将发达和欠发达市场之间为准至于绿色基础设施,但下半年不太可能公有制经济刺激政策产生重大提振投资这些领域的近期前景。Indeed, as shown in our Sustainability Policy Index’s rankings, less-developed markets across LatAm, Africa, and parts of Asia underperform in policy areas that seek to enhance their sustainability, such as via low-emission transport and energy efficiency initiatives. Nonetheless, we highlight the potential for multilateral lenders, such as theWorld Bank,到功能所谓在需要外部援助提供给市场的贷款绿色契约。世界银行发行债券的绿色,例如,提供融资横跨可再生能源,能源效率,低排放的运输和水基础设施项目,并因此为投资者提供接触到整个发展中市场与气候变化相关的投资。

中国's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), meanwhile, will remain the driving force for infrastructure investment across Asia and much of Africa, with the scope for green investment under the BRI set to be limited in the short-term. We anticipate China honing its efforts withinAsia and Africa post-Covid-19,虽然选择项目的发展将涉及可再生能源资产的部署,在BRI的主要优先事项将继续把重点放在传统的运输和能源基础设施项目。

尽管拉丁美洲主要市场将继续他们的前女友isting efforts to bolster their renewables capacity in the long-term, we do not expect the region to enact significant fresh stimulus for green infrastructure investments in response to Covid-19.Similarly to many developed markets maintaining their long-term ambitions to decarbonise and promote green investments, markets with existing efforts to bolster their renewable energy capacity will not be deterred by the pandemic. Although, we do expect these markets to be constrained in their ability to offer fresh green stimulus, for renewables or otherwise, given the severity of the economic downturn being experienced across the region this year.

We highlight markets such as Chile, a regional outperformer in the deployment of renewable energy assets, as set to continue their long-term ambitions for a greater role for renewables, despite the virus’ short-term setback. Our Power and Renewables team have revised down their electricity consumption and generation forecasts for the market during 2020, which, combined with a sharp recession for the broader economy, will weigh on investment in the near-term. That said, 2021 will see the pandemic’s impact diminish and allow the sector to return to its positive, long-term trajectory; with non-hydro renewables capacity forecast to account for 40% of Chile’s electricity mix by the end of the decade.

In contrast, Mexico’s authorities have announced policies that we expect will disincentivise investment in renewables, though these are less directly linked to the onset of Covid-19 and, rather, part of the government’s efforts to mothball the sector under the economic upheaval brought about by the virus. May saw Mexico’s Ministry of Energy (SENER) publish changes for its power grid that will, in short, shift operational powers away from the private sector towards the state-owned utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), which will constrain the approval and development of private renewables capacity in the market.

The outlook for both markets serves to demonstrate the varying prospects for green investment in LatAm, with these investments currently largely confined to the renewables sector across the region. Other green investment themes, such as the adoption of EVs, are unlikely to benefit from any fresh economic stimulus in the near-term, though we continue to highlight the region’s longer-term prospects for investment in this area. In particular, policies in favour of electric buses at both the local and national government levels in Chile and Colombia are seeing the two countries lead the region in electric bus deployment. Early 2019 saw the Chilean government set a target of 100% of public transportation to be electric by 2050, while capital city Santiago has deployed 400 electric buses in recent months, the largest currently of any city in the Americas region. In August 2019, Colombia’s government presented a National Strategy for Electric and Sustainable Mobility, setting a national goal for 100% of public vehicles purchased by mass transit authorities to be electric by 2035. Ultimately, the presence of these national goals will continue to spur investment across the coming decades, though economic stimulus in response to Covid-19 will not offer upside for this area.

This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings. Copyright © 2020 Fitch Solutions Group Limited. © Fitch Solutions Group Limited All rights reserved. 30 North Colonnade, London E14 5GN, UK.

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